Just a quick update on the latest forecast with the 12Z GFS data now available. With the current situation there is a lot of interest, and many people anxiously await the next model run to see how the latest data impacts the forecast.
It appears that the 12Z run is following along with what I saw on the 06Z run. A definite cool down is still in the works for Tuesday and Wednesday with the Arctic front making it into Alabama. But it is not looking like an extremely cold event. It will seem really cold because we will be dropping from the mild weather this weekend with highs in the lower 70s to highs in the 40s. And it’s looking less likely for any winter-type precipitation in Alabama. The GFS is still maintaining the zero-degree isotherm at the 850 millibar level to only reach North Alabama. This seems to be in response to the strong upper trough nudging by to our north. The strong ridge holds over the Gulf and then builds north into the Central US as the trough moves to the East Coast and a new Four Corners trough digs in again.
The limited run-to-run consistency helps to build confidence in the solution, but I’m not guaranteeing anything just yet. The models today are quite different from the look we saw yesterday afternoon. There are still too man “ifs” and those are pretty big “ifs.” Prudence dictates that a “stay tuned” philosophy is still a good one. And that’s why it’s nice to have this Blog to post discussions and thinking on what will occur in the near future.
In the meantime, we can enjoy the lovely spring-like weather and temperatures just in case we find out Tuesday that GFS has missed it all.
-Brian-
