A quick update to supplement the afternoon discussion I posted a few hours ago…
We are still dealing with two rounds of rain and storms during the next 36 hours:
*ROUND ONE: The big mass of rain and storms to the west of Alabama will slip in here after midnight tonight as the low level jet (at 850 mb, or about 5,000 feet) moves into the state. Looks like the best coverage of showers and storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. I guess you can’t totally rule out a severe storm somewhere, but a significant severe weather event is not likely due to marginal instability values and the lack of really strong dynamics. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 inches are a good bet during this seven hour period. Still, we will watch the overnight storms to be sure there aren’t any serious surprises. We do note the tornado warning up now for Forrest County down in Southeast Mississippi.
*ROUND TWO: After the sky becomes partly sunny tomorrow afternoon, the next batch of showers and storms will move in here tomorrow night in advance of the surface front. This will offer the most significant chance of severe weather, and for now it looks like the prime threat of strong to severe storms will come from about 9:00 tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Friday. Shear values suggest there might be a few rotating storms around here, along with the potential for damaging straight line winds.
I will have a full discussion and the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. will handle the short term updates. The blog will be busy through early Friday morning, so stay tuned!
