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Okay, okay, I’m guilty of trying to write a headline that grabs your attention. But actually the models began picking up on something yesterday and they are still hinting at something today. The problem, of course, is that the pattern is very weak, so the models may not do a good job of handing the feature. It would certainly appear that a weak surface low on that weak convergence zone/trough would help to generate showers along the Gulf coast. As the east coast trough pulls further east, it will leave a weakness behind in the 500 millibar pattern but with a flat, broad ridge, it will just meander and gradually fill with time.
The GFS and NAM do not handle the surface feature the same. The GFS takes a weak surface low into Mobile and then northward into East Tennessee but leaves the precipitation behind on the Gulf coast. The NAM, though, takes the weak surface low along the northern Gulf Coast toward Louisiana. In either case, the pattern is going to be weak, so it’s anybody’s guess as to where the surface low may meander. This is not something we’re going to be able to forecast well out more than a day or so because it is going to depend on mesoscale changes which the computer models do not do well with. The GFS solution on position looks nice, but the lack of rain seems contrary to what I would expect. We’ll be watching this to see how it evolves in a weak environment.
Broad ridging continues through much of the upcoming weak with the ridge getting stronger as we get into the early part of next week. Still no signs of extreme heat, which I find to be great news. Mid 90s is enough for me. We will probably see a pretty hot day today with some readings climbing into the upper 90s. But hopefully this will be short lived with some moisture increase over the next couple of days.
Tropically Chantal is headed northeast away from land and rapidly becoming extratropical. The small cluster of thunderstorms about 200 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has changed little but overall conditions still appear favorable for possible slow development. The hurricane models continue to be in rather good agreement on a future track of this disturbance into the eastern and central Caribbean. Be sure to scroll down for Bill Murray’s post on the powerful typhoon in the Pacific – Usagi.
Trolling well into voodoo land, there is no sign of any big changes in the overall weather pattern through the middle of August.
Following up on yesterday’s discussion, I did get my lawn mowed, but I did not succeed in getting it down before temperatures reached the lower 90s. To offset the heat, though, I had a big container of ice water handy and I made frequent stops for some cool gulps. I’ve been fighting lawn mower issues but I found one of my problems. My air cleaner had about a pound of dirt in it, so it purred much better after I cleaned it.
I hope you have a great Wednesday. I’m headed out for a bunch of errands today – yuck – but they are all things that have to get done. Have a great day and stay cool.
-Brian-
