Generally Dry Through Saturday

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RIGHT NOW: We do note a few isolated showers over Northeast and Northwest Alabama, but a large majority of Alabama is dry this afternoon with a partly sunny sky. Once again, temperatures are below forecast values, and below MOS guidance. Seems like the MOS is running about 5 degrees too warm, and we probably need to tone down the highs a bit for tomorrow and Saturday, with low to mid 80s (instead of mid to upper 80s). Drier air should mean mostly dry weather tomorrow and Saturday, although a few isolated showers could conceivably pop up on radar at some point. Nights will be pleasant; in fact the GFS is printing 59 degrees for Birmingham early tomorrow. Some of the cooler spots could reach the mid 50s.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: A shower is possible by Sunday afternoon, especially from Birmingham south, as moisture begins to increase. Then, showers are likely for at least the first half next week with a very moist airmass hanging over the state. Looks like highs only in the 70s Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and showers, perhaps bumping 80 on Wednesday. Probably nothing too heavy, but rain amounts of 1/2 inch seem likely for the first half of next week.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight and Friday night, the weather looks good with temperatures at kick off around 80 and dropping into the 70s during the game. Little or no chance of a shower. Rice will be in Birmingham to play UAB Saturday with a 3:00 p.m. kick off. The temperature should be near 85 and about 80 when it is time to go home. For the Auburn/Louisiana Tech game Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium, the sky should be mostly fair, with a temperature around 78 at kickoff, with mid 70s by the fourth quarter. And, of course, weather is no concern for the Alabama/Virginia Tech game since the game is being played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, but the weather outside will be mostly clear with evening temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

TROPICS: Erika remains quite the mystery lady. She is barely a tropical storm, with sustained winds of only 40 mph. The weaker system has been moving almost due west, with no northward component of motion during the past 48 hours. Hostile upper air winds and dry air surrounding the system could mean dissipation by Saturday, but I am not sure we need to write this one off. The 12 GFS shows Erika coming back to life around the Bahamas early next week, with a recurve path just off the upper Atlantic coast, very similar to previous systems this year. One way or another, it still does not look like a Gulf of Mexico storm. We will be watching.

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I sure had a great time today visiting with the Cullman Rotary Club… always good to be in Cullman County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….