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Round 1 was yesterday morning, so we are now in the throes of preparing for round 2 with a fairly significant severe weather threat shaping up for tonight. For the moment, the problem in our weather is the fog. Skycam network doing a fantastic job of showing the sometimes very dense fog across sections of northern Alabama. The fog should be dissipating later this morning or rising into a low cloud deck.
A warm front lies across the southern sections of Alabama and Mississippi and that front should move northward during the day today. In the meantime, a strong upper trough will be coming out of the Rockies and going negative tilt. This means enhanced lift to the south and southeast of the trough. There is also a strong jet – about 130 knots – at 200 millibars which will also enhance lift. Then at 850 millibars we have a strong low level jet of 30 to 40 knots. So a lot of parameters are coming together including the helicity. Helicity values across portions of the Southeast US will be in the 300 to 500 values. What is missing in a large quantity is instability. There is some instability, on the order of CAPE values of 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg. While these are sufficient to add to the recipe, they are not extreme. So please understand that this is shaping up as a significant severe weather episode but it is not of the generational magnitude of April 27th.
During the afternoon, a small lead impulse moving across the area may help to produce some discrete cells which could produce severe weather ahead of the main event later this evening and into the overnight hours. The main event is likely to be a squall line with the potential for discrete cells ahead of the line as well as embedded supercells. Models are in reasonably good agreement that a squall line will form in eastern Arkansas and move eastward ahead of the front. The squall is likely to enter western sections of Alabama in the midnight to 3 am time frame and move steadily across the state. The squall line could be exiting the Central Alabama around 10 am to noon.
The video includes details on the CAPE values, helicity, and other parameters.
Rainfall amounts with the system tonight and early Monday should be on the order of 1 inch. Flash flooding may be an issue due to the rain we had yesterday.
The rest of the week remains somewhat unsettled, too. Nothing severe, but a fairly fast moving flow that brings another trough out of the Southwest US on Wednesday/Thursday that promises more rain and perhaps a severe weather threat across the Gulf Coast. That is followed by a return to a somewhat colder pattern – no extremes but at least something akin to temperatures more typical of the latter part of January.
And the longer range forecast continue to show that colder look, too.
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| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Stay tuned to the Blog for a running commentary on the developments of the day and night. Take a few minutes to review your severe weather safety plan and know what to do if the weather turns violent. James Spann may have a new video on Monday morning, though there is some possibility that he won’t have time for one due to the developing severe weather scenario. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
