The 0z run of the GFS is out far enough to see the expected landfall of Ike…it comes in land Friday afternoon near Brownsville, Texas or Matamoros, Mexico. The upper ridge holds strong through Thursday, steering Ike on a west northwest course into the coast. By Friday, the ridge is beginning to be eroded on its western side by a big approaching trough, but not in time to allow for a northward track.
Still, Ike could hold surprises. Remmeber, we are dealing model data.
But late tonight, it does appear to me that Ike is getting better organized. The feeder bands are stronger and the convection is growing near the center. Despite the proximity to land, I would not be surprised to see a little strengthening overnight. And Ike will be poised to strengthen as it enters the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow…
