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No dull moments in the weather office these days… the short term focus will be on the winter warmth through mid-week along with two decent rain/storm events. We really need to get these out of here before we can deal accurately with the system on Sunday.
MID-WEEK: Look for a high in the low 70s today; Birmingham’s record high for January 8 is 74 degrees set in 1946; we will be flirting with it again today. Winds will increase out of the south in advance of the weather system that brought a major tornado outbreak to Southwest Missouri, and parts of North Illinois and South Wisconsin last night. We note the death toll is now two over Southwest Missouri; see our sister site weatherparty.com for related news stories.
Most of the day today will be dry; but to the west more strong to severe storms are possible in the general area from Monroe, Louisiana to Indianapolis. Those showers and storms will move into Alabama tonight, but I don’t expect a big severe weather problem here with limited instability and weakening dynamics that will be passing well to the north of Alabama. Looks like most of the rain tonight will come from 8:00 p.m. until 4:00 a.m., and rain amounts of one-quarter to one-half inch are likely.
Most of the day tomorrow will be dry for the northern half of the state as the surface front stalls near Montgomery; any showers should be south of U.S. 80. But, that front moves northward as a warm front tomorrow night, and by then showers are possible statewide.
The next wave will bring a good rain event to Alabama on Thursday, when totals of one to two inches are likely. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight severe weather risk on Thursday; instability values look pretty good for January (CAPE over 750 j/kg), but model consistency in the exact placement of surface and upper air features has not been good; the 06Z GFS really suggests little chance of severe weather, but other runs have shown much better potential. Lets get tonight’s system out of here and we can focus on the Thursday event.
The rain will move out late Thursday night.
COLDER DAYS: Temperatures get back to “normal” by Friday and Saturday; highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
SUNDAY STORM: Global models continue to show a strong short wave rotating through the base of the upper trough over the eastern U.S., which in turn spins up a surface low along the old front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The 06Z GFS places the low just south of Apalachicola. This should spread some light rain into Alabama Sunday afternoon, and as the low moves to a point near Charleston Sunday night, there is a chance the rain could change to snow over parts of North Alabama Sunday night as cold air deepens across the state. We note the Canadian GEM develops the surface low much farther to the north (see the Weather Xtreme video)… there are simply questions we can’t answer about this system so early in the game; once the Thursday wave is out of here we can really get a good look and model data will be much better (hopefully!).
VOODOO LAND: The weather sure looks cold here and over much of the eastern U.S. in the January 18-24 time frame… don’t get used to this warmth. That should be a cold and active period….
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We recorded a new show last night; our guest was Vince Condella, chief meteorologist at WITI-TV in Milwaukee; he reports on their wild day of severe weather yesterday.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories. Lots of news over there on the big tornado event last night across the Midwest.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon!
