Hanna does not have her act together and a bit confused this morning. The latest track forecast shows her turning toward the SW and actually may threaten the Bahamas in a few days. She may be a first cousin to Fay. After that turn to the SW, who knows?
Please don’t put all your plans into any one landfall projection this early for either Gustav or Hanna. Errors can still be large at the end of the track forecast.
One of our generally well respected models last night (00Z run) actually suggest closer to Gulf Shores and the Mobile area for Gustav.
The national Hurricane Center has a large staff of well trained hurricane meteorologists. They deal only with subjects tropical. You won’t see any of them spending time on what the high or low temperature or POPS will be for Miami. They see every model there is before making their final decisions. Hurricane forecasting (like all weather forecasting) will never be perfect. We can know exactly when the moon will rise and set but weather is different. The total atmosphere is too deep and fluid (flexible)
Let me also recommend (and you already know this) checking the video discussion that James will post by around 6:30. He gets up before the roosters crow each morning and I sometimes think that he studies more models than the NHC. He will point out all possibilities.
All of us will try to keep everyone as informed as possible here on the blog in the coming days. Sometimes, we get behind especially if the coffee runs out.
Remember, prayer works!
…..and, we could absolutely not do without the large team of 33/40 Skywatchers and others who contribute comments on the blog!
Priceless!
