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Looks like the heat will stick with us for the next week or so even as the upper ridge weakens. But as this ridge weakens, we should see a weakness in the upper air pattern over the eastern third of the US including the Southeast. This opens the way for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Today the influence of the upper ridge is still strong, so I expect Central Alabama to see only isolated showers with a bit more coverage to the southeast of Birmingham where an old boundary continued to persist.
The upper ridge moves slightly to the west keeping the weakness in the pattern over us through the end of the week. This should mean scattered showers everyday increasing the potential for all of us to get some rain on one or more of the days. But because of the convective nature of the rain, someone will probably get missed, too. Rainfall in the showers over the next five days could amount to an inch or so in locations that do get rain on one or more days.
By the end of the upcoming week, the upper ridge noses its way back east pushing the weakness in the upper flow away from us. This means that as we head into the weekend we should be dropping back to only isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
No tropical activity to be concerned with right now despite the presence of some cloudiness in the Caribbean. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in the extreme North Central US which shifts eastward on Day 2 into the Dakotas.
The long range GFS still holds onto the idea of a deep trough along the East Coast. The problem for us is that the latest GFS positions the trough a tad further east than what we saw yesterday. Instead of a significant cool down, we stay on the edge of the upper ridge keeping us fairly warm. But at least we could see the potential for thunderstorm clusters in the northerly flow nearby to the east.
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I hope that you have a great Fourth of July. James Spann will be back on the 4th with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I believe he will be putting out only one discussion on a holiday schedule. Be aware of the heat, be safe with any use of fireworks, and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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