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Thanks to the increased chances for rain along with some extra clouds and we’re going to see a couple of days with slightly cooler temperatures for highs as they only reach about 90 to 92. The increased shower chances stick with us Sunday before beginning to wane Monday, and as the upper ridge builds stronger by mid-week we are going to see temperatures climb back into the upper 90s – perhaps with some locations getting to the triple digit numbers.
Thanks to a weakness in the upper ridge, shower and thunderstorm coverage should be fairly good again today much like yesterday. Because of the weakness in the upper ridge, we could see fairly good coverage of showers on Sunday, too. But as we head into the first of the week the ridge begins to build back into the Southeast US becoming very strong by Wednesday through Friday. This means the heat returns with highs at least into the upper 90s and perhaps reaching the triple digit values. The strong upper ridge also means we cut back on showers to isolated afternoon and early evening events.
SPC outlooking a moderate risk area primarily over Minnesota today with a sizable area of slight risk surrounding that. With the westerlies well to our north, the slight risk shifts eastward on Day 2 stretching from the eastern Great Lakes to Missouri. Tropics remain quiet though there are lots of clouds in the Caribbean, but none of the cloudiness currently shows signs of any organization or development.
Interesting changes being suggested in the long range. The GFS is now hinting at a major change around August 1st. Well into voodoo, the GFS suggesting the development of a major trough of significant amplitude to have a major cooling effect on the eastern half of the country. This is quite a change from the previous runs, so I’m not putting a lot of faith in it – hope perhaps!! It would certainly provide a much wanted period of relief from the heat, but this kind of thing is too dramatic a change and too far out to really put much credibility on it just yet.
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Today is Helena Market Day at the Buck Creek Amphitheater Park. Local producers bring in their vegetables and other hand-produced goods for sale from 8 am to noon. If you want really fresh stuff, this is the place to be. I am headed there as soon as I can. I hope you have a great day. Heed the storms and be safe from lightning especially. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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