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Scroll down for posts concerning the rash of storms that erupted in scattered pockets of Alabama late yesterday and last night. While most of the state got no rain, a few lucky neighborhoods got a good soaking. Our total at the ABC 33/40 Weather Center was 1.18″, but at my place in North Shelby County the total was 0.00″. I have noticed over the years that storms that flare up on a really hot summer afternoon (upper 90s or hotter) really produce really fierce and frequent lightning.
TODAY: While today will be very hot, we figure the highs will be about 3 to 5 degrees below the ones we had to endure yesterday with slightly lower thickness values and a better chance of afternoon storms. Most places will peak somewhere between 95 and 99… and storms will form in scattered spots during the peak of the heat. The storms today will be similar to those we had yesterday, expect they should be a little more numerous, and most likely in different places.
We will also watch convection to the north along a surface front; some of those might cross into Alabama late tonight before they fizzle out.
TOMORROW AND BEYOND: Showers and storms will be even more active tomorrow as that surface boundary moves down toward the Tennessee Valley. Both the NAM and the GFS are suggesting highs only in the upper 80s tomorrow; we won’t go that low, but the high should be close to 90, nothing like the heat we have dealt with in recent days. We figure there will be a decent coverage of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon as the front slices into the Deep South.
The front will wash out tomorrow, and we will roll with your usual summer forecast for Thursday, Friday, and the weekend….. Partly sunny, scattered afternoon storms, and a high in the low 90s. I am sure there will be variations in afternoon convection at some point, but we can’t identify them far in advance since the changes will be based on small scale features. We will also be in a general northwest flow aloft thanks to an upper trough over the eastern U.S… and that can bring an occasional MCS (mesoscale convective system) into Alabama, even during the nighttime hours. We will have to watch for those in coming days.
Looks like the eastern U.S. upper trough stays in place next week, and another front will approach early in the week that might bring an enhanced chance of showers and storms. No sign of any more extreme heat for the rest of July into early August.
TROPICS: Dolly sure looks better on satellite images this morning; the NHC track has shifted slightly to the south, but it still looks like this will come into the Gulf coast near Brownsville, Texas as a hurricane tomorrow morning. Unless it really slows down, I am not sure it will have time to reach category two status, but rapid intensification is certainly possible with very warm water ahead of the system and a favorable upper air outflow pattern.
The wave over the far eastern Atlantic looks good this morning with nice banding features; this one might turn north and recurve over the open water based on the current latitude, but time will tell.
Cristobal will become extra-tropical during the next 24 hours as it moves over the North Atlantic.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
