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Thunderstorms are beginning to fire up in the hot and moist air over Alabama; the stronger storms are over Calhoun, Cherokee, and Cleburne counties of East Alabama as I write this around 3:00. More will form during the next five hours in scattered spots; a few neighborhoods will get a good downpour.
Birmingham is reporting 91 degrees at 2:00 this afternoon… there is actually a chance we will remain under the 90 degree mark tomorrow as the upper ridge weakens slightly. And, that also means a better chance of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms through mid-week. The NAM is more aggressive with showers and storms in coming days as opposed to the drier GFS; we figure the chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow and Wednesday is about one in three. As usual, the best chance of storm will come from about 1:00 until 8:00 p.m. Rainfall distribution will not be very even due to the scattered nature of the storms.
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS continues the idea of a surface boundary moving down our way with a general increase in the number of showers and storms by Friday and Saturday. The model has hinted at this for a couple of weeks, and has not strayed far from this solution. We will nudge our forecast in that direction; a good chance we won’t make it out of the mid 80s on these days with the increased clouds and shower activity.
The 12Z GFS also continues the idea of drier air moving into North Alabama on Sunday; if this is correct the northern half of the state will be dry with lower humidity; lets wait on the 00Z run before we jump all over this. A big chance to dry air is possible this time of the year, but it doesn’t happen very often.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like fairly typical summer weather during the latter half of June; the primary storm track will be north of Alabama (as you expect in summer), but there will be sufficient moisture and instability for a few scattered showers and storms each day. Temperatures look to be close to average values.
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