Heat Ridge To Slowly Weaken; W...

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THIS AFTERNOON: The ridge aloft is stronger over Alabama this afternoon… the morning sounding from the Shelby County Airport showed a 500 mb temperature of -6 degrees (C)… a little warmer than yesterday, and pretty much putting a lid on convection today. We will hang on to some risk of isolated storms through the evening, but most neighborhoods will be dry. Birmingham is at 91 degrees at 2:00, with a dewpoint of 65 and a heat index of 93. Not that bad for summer in Alabama, but certainly hot enough.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The heat ridge is expected to slowly weaken, meaning a slow increase in the number of showers and storms, especially Friday through Sunday. The GFS, in fact, looks pretty wet over the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms as a moisture axis sets up over Alabama with high PW values. Highs will be in the 88 to 92 degree range over the weekend with the best chance of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues the idea of an upper trough forming over the eastern third of the nation next week, with the heat bubble moving west. The model brings a front in here Monday with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by drier, continental air Tuesday and Wednesday for the northern half of Alabama. An interesting idea; I would say an outside chance this happens, but possible. The other big question involves the potential for a tropical storm to be pulled up in here in response to the upper trough… meaning we need to discuss the….

TROPICS: The disturbance in the Caribbean (invest 93L) remains disorganized. However, winds aloft are expected to decrease over the system in coming days, and with the better upper air pattern and warm water, sure seems like this has a good chance to become a tropical storm within a few days. The 12Z models have shifted a bit to the left again with considerable spread. The ECMWF takes the system across the Yucatan peninsula, and westward into Mexico south of Brownsville, Texas around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. The GEM (Canadian) and the GFDL bring the system into the central Louisiana coast as a tropical storm early next week. Everybody likes to play the guessing game, but there is simply no skill at this point in trying to tell you the ultimate destination of this wave… we will be watching. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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I had a great time today visiting the kids in the summer program at Bevill State in Jasper and Sumiton… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…