Here Comes Da Rain ! !

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Clouds arrived overnight and it appears that the rain will be spreading over Alabama primarily during the afternoon hours. Some rain according to radar has already arrived in Southwest Alabama. Flash flood watches have been posted for the southern half of the state roughly south of an east-west line through Clanton. So the Birmingham-Tuscaloosa-Anniston area is not in the watch. However, a good soaking is likely for much of the state with rainfall amounts over the southern half of the state in the 1 to 3 inch range while the northern half is expected to get about 1 inch of rain.

Severe weather is a concern especially along the Gulf Coast. This is another one of those situation where the shear is in place but the instability is well south of that shear. SpC has a slight risk along the Gulf coast from Houston to Apalachicola extending northward to about Montgomery and Auburn. It does seems that the biggest threat will lie along the immediate coast, but the potential exists a bit further inland if the instability can make some inroads a bit further northward.

The upper trough and the surface low move off into South Carolina on Sunday with models in good agreement on the timing and strength of the various elements. Look for Sunday to be one of those days with little change in temperatures with readings holding in the lower and middle 50s.

Sunshine returns on Monday but we start the day around freezing with some spots likely to get into the upper 20s. Again, the cold is relatively short-lived as we see a quick moderation with highs climbing back into the 60s and lows into the 40s for much of the upcoming week.

Wednesday will be cloudy day once again with a trough moving through the Ohio River Valley and across the Great Lakes area. The GFS MOS puts out 20 percent, but I hate putting 20 percent in all the time, so I’m going to leave the forecast dry for now. We stay dry again on Thursday, but another pattern similar to the one we are currently dealing with shapes up for Friday. The closed low over northern Mexico comes out of the Southwest and nearly phases up with the large trough coming out of the Dakotas. This should result in a surface low along the Gulf Coast again with another round of soaking rain for much of the Southeast US.

In the longer range, February ends on a mild note as March starts on a mild note with a continuation of the overall zonal to southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere pattern.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. The cold air lags behind the moisture, so at least for now there does not appear to be a significant threat of any wintery weather. But this is getting out in time a good deal verging on voodoo country, so we’ll have to see how this system evolves. It’s interesting to note that the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement out to next Saturday which increases the confidence in the forecast solution.

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Be sure to check back with the Blog today as we keep you posted with the latest information. I expect to have the next Xtreme video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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