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The SPC is going high risk for eastern North Carolina this afternoon due to moderate instability, increasing moisture and very strong shear. They warn that there is a possibility of significant tornadoes.
They just issued a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watch for parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Here is the text of the Mesoscale Discussion…
ACUS11 KWNS 161616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161616
NCZ000-SCZ000-161715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…ERN NC
CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 161616Z – 161715Z
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS
FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG
SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY…INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE…AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
..SMITH.. 04/16/2011
…PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…
LAT…LON 34047921 35927883 36467841 36547738 36417656 35997655
34857678 33877798 33787883 34047921
