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HEATING UP: Not much change in the overall thinking this afternoon. Look for lots of sunshine tomorrow and Friday with afternoon highs in the 88 to 91 degree range. Should be hard to find a decent cloud in the sky as we enjoy the warmest weather so far this year. Humidity levels won’t be nearly as bad as what we get in the middle of summer.
WEEKEND FORECAST: A cold front will pass through Alabama early Saturday morning, and the latest run of the GFS continues the idea that a few isolated showers could form on the front. Rain amounts will be very light and spotty, and many communities won’t get we at all. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four, and the best chance of a shower will from around 2:00 a.m. until 10:00 a.m. Saturday. This really won’t be a problem for outdoor activities; just be aware a few rain drops are possible Saturday morning.
Look for a decent amount of sunshine Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures; the 12Z GFS is printing a high of 77 for Birmingham Saturday afternoon.
Sunday, the surface front will back up and move north as a warm front. This could also trigger a few widely scattered showers during the afternoon hours, and we will go ahead and mention that in the forecast. But, once again, the rain won’t be especially heavy or widespread. The GFS is showing a high of only 69 for Birmingham Sunday, which sure seems too cool; we will keep the high in the mid 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.
NEXT WEEK: The warm front should be north of Alabama Monday, and most of the showers should be confined to the far northern counties of the state and northward into Tennessee. We warm up with highs in the low 80s, and humidity levels will rise as well with a southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday and Wednesday look warm and dry here with highs in the 80s… all of the active weather early next week will be over the Great Plains, where severe storms will be possible. I am sure the storm chasers are licking their chops.
A weakening front will move down this way by Thursday, with will bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. That front will stall out Thursday, so a few showers are possible Friday as well.
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