AUGUST HEAT: Alabama’s weather won’t change much today. For most places the weather will be simply hot and dry with a high in the 92-96 degree range, but a few showers/storms will likely form this afternoon and early tonight. Highest risk of a passing storm is over North and East Alabama, where SPC has defined a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms.
Like yesterday, storms that form will be capable of producing very heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and gobs of lightning. Most of them will come from noon to midnight.
An upper ridge will strengthen over the Deep South in coming days, which will set the stage for sizzling summer days with only isolated afternoon storms tomorrow through the weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, and the heat index will exceed 100 with the humid, tropical air in places.
The ridge stays parked over the region through next week, meaning more of the same. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with isolated afternoon storms. Highs next week will be generally in the mid 90s… See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave (designated Invest 92L) located around 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
There is an 80 percent chance of development. But we note environmental conditions will become hostile for a tropical cyclone by the weekend as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles, and weakening is likely. A number of reliable global models show the feature dissipating as it attempts to move into the Caribbean.
We note there is another wave trailing Invest 92L in the far Eastern Atlantic; chance of development is 20 percent for now. No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected near the contiguous U.S. for at least the next 7-10 days.
ON THIS DATE IN 2007: An intense heat wave was underway across Alabama. Highs on August 12, 2007 included 106 in Montgomery, 105 in Tuscaloosa, 102 at Birmingham and Muscle Shoals, and 100 at Anniston. It was the state’s most severe heat wave since 1980.
Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
