That’s the tough question tonight. The wind shear remains sufficient to maintain storms, with 0-3 km helicity above 300 from BHM north, and near 400 in NW Alabama. But, SPC mesoscale analysis shows that instability decreases rapidly east of the squall line, with lifted indices -2 near the Alabama/Mississippi line, but +1 to +2 in BHM, much more stable.
Eventually the storms will weaken, especially since we’re well after sunset. But, sometimes a low-level jet forms ahead of a squall line, transporting moisture northward just ahead of the line, keeping the line going longer than we might expect.
The storms, along with damaging winds and hail may make it as far east as BHM. And, with so much wind shear in place, a couple of tornadoes are not out of the question. The storm about to move into Fayette County looks dangerous right now.
