Air Force mission 05 into Ida dropped enough dropsondes into the storm to blanket the Gulf ahead of the storm with raw data for the 00z model runs. This will really help the accuracy of the models tonight.
That is critical since we are dealing with a tricky late season hurricane in the southern Gulf moving north.
Ida will impact the northern Gulf Coast starting Monday afternoon.
There are still lots of questions to be answered over the next 36 hours.
Will it maintain its Category Two intensity and make landfall with winds of 105 mph or so? Will it be like Hurricane Eloise, which intensified before landfall in September 1975?
Unlikely. It will be moving over cooler water tonight and Monday. Wind shear will increase as the storm moves northward. There is a tremendous amount of dry air waiting in the wings to the west, waiting to be sucked into the circulation. It is more likely to be like 1974’s Hurricane Carmen which was a strong hurricane in the middle Gulf that virtually petered out right before landfall in Louisiana. Dry air was the culprit there. But if that doesn’t occur until right before or just after landfall, winds may be more of a problem.
Will the center actually reach the shoreline?
The models have been trending toward the idea that the center will make landfall before losing tropical characteristics and turning sharply eastward.
Will storm surge be a big problem?
The prolonged easterly wind fetch ahead of the storm will continue to pile water into Southeast Louisiana. Tides could reach 5-7 feet above normal outside in the exposed parishes like Plaquemines and St. Bernard, which could cause significant flooding outside the protection levees. Tides will be two to four feet above normal in the area from Grand Isle to Panama City. As the storm makes landfall, areas just east of the center will see the potential for elevated surge, perhaps as high as 5-7 feet at the heads of bays, like Mobile Bay.
What will be the impacts in Central Alabama?
Heavy rain Monday night and Tuesday morning, averaging 2-4 inches in spots. Winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to over 35 mph. Some tree limbs may be blown down, perhaps causing scattered power outages.
When will Hurricane Warnings be issued?
Likely later tonight for parts of the Hurricane Watch area. Probably on the 9 p.m. advisory.
Will evacuations be necessary along the coast?
In low lying areas that could be affected by the expected tides and for people that live in mobile homes.
PLEASE NOTE
For some reason, the NWS Mobile is unable to issue their Hurricane Local Statement product. They are instead issuing it as a Special Weather Statement.
