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The cold front that brought about a tenth of an inch of rain to many locales overnight is washing out across South Alabama, and it seems we will be between weather systems today and Sunday. The upper trough was located over the eastern third of the country this morning with some low clouds and fog across the northern third of Alabama. I believe the clouds will break up today with sunshine on tap for the afternoon. Temperatures should be relatively mild with highs in the 64 to 67 range.
Sunday we’re between systems so other than a solid southerly wind we should see a nice day with highs topping out in the lower 70s.
The main action will come Monday, primarily during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday morning. SPC has outlooked most of Alabama for a slight risk of severe weather along with much of Mississippi, Louisiana, portions of Texas and Arkansas, and the Florida panhandle. The NAM and the GFS have come together in their solutions with a surface low generally in the area of Columbus-Hamilton on Monday afternoon. This would open nearly all of Alabama to a risk of severe weather, but the risk would be higher the further south you go. The details will remain in the mesoscale details. CAPE values do not appear to be huge, but each model run continues to improve the instability. At this writing, the greatest threat appears to be from the Birmingham area southward. Confidence is a bit better today as the two primary models come to into closer agreement. But we’ll be watching each model run with avid interest.
Behind the surface low will be clouds and cold air, so the possibility remains for some snow flurries or snow showers. The model data I’m dealing with does not seem to be quite as bullish on the wrap around moisture. HPC is looking for up to 2 to 3 inches of rain across Northwest Alabama with amounts tapering to around one inch in Southeast Alabama. I’m happy to see Alabama getting some much needed rain and it was good to see the exceptional drought area shrink on the Drought Monitor latest data on Thursday. I’d like to see that trend continue – and it will as long as the pattern stays active with good rain producing events.
Tuesday could be a brisk day with little change in temperatures – or perhaps temperatures even falling during the day. Wednesday and Thursday become transition days with Central Alabama between systems as one completely exits and the next one begins to appear late Thursday.
I’ll tell you right now that my confidence in the end of the week weather forecast is not high. The GFS progs a surface low, but a rather broad low, along the Gulf coast which could mean a winter weather threat for some place in the Southeast. As depicted on the GFS 06Z run, the main winter weather threat would be in North Mississippi, East Arkansas, and West Tennessee. But I just don’t like the feel of this solution. That surface low exits Friday night paving the way for a nice weekend with chilly mornings and cool afternoons.
Voodoo country promises to keep the pattern active which is good for the drought situation and tough on weather folks.
I really enjoyed chatting with folks in Cullman yesterday. Jason and I spent nearly three hours programming NOAA Weather Radios for people. The radios won’t work correctly if they are not programmed properly, so ABC 3340 is trying to help our community be prepared by offering this assistance. Looks for more of these “programming parties” in the near future. And this morning I’m heading out to the Easter Seal Walk at Veteran’s Park in Alabaster before filling in on the 6 and 10 pm newscasts. Busy, busy, busy! I hope you have a great weekend. God bless.
-Brian-
