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As advertised, much colder air is rolling into Alabama this morning on a brisk northwest wind. Most cities are hovering around freezing, with a wind chill index in the 18 to 24 degree range. We have received a number of reports of very light snow flurries across North Alabama this morning in the cold air.
The sky will gradually clear today, but even with some sunshine returning this afternoon we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Then, tonight, as the wind dies down, a significant freeze is likely with mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow. The colder valleys should reach the upper teens.
WARMER DAYS: A warming trend begins tomorrow afternoon as we rise into the upper 50s. Low 60s are likely by Friday.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM: I really think we can back down on the chance of rain Friday night and Saturday, as the GFS continues to trend slower with our next rain producer. I won’t change anything just yet, but the 06Z run keeps the most widespread and significant rain generally west of Alabama until Sunday. Lets get the 12Z run in the house before we tinker with our public forecast over on the seven day page.
The upper trough on Friday will be over the Southwest U.S., and is still over far West Texas and Mexico on Saturday. Then, it kicks out Sunday, goes negative tilt, and begins to phase with a northern branch wave. The 06Z GFS show a deep surface low developing near Tupelo at midday Sunday, then moving to near Knoxville, TN by Sunday evening. This setup would suggest a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern half of Alabama Sunday, and SPC has this defined in their day 5 convective outlook. Should the surface low develop farther to the north, that would bring the severe weather risk into North Alabama. We will sure keep an eye on this. On the positive side, rain amounts of one to two inches are likely with our weekend storm system.
ANOTHER COLD AIR SHOT: Another shot of very cold air will blow into Alabama Monday of next week; the GFS MOS is way too warm. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s Monday, much like the situation today.
VOODOO LAND: Sure looks like our weather will remain active and very changeable through the rest of February, and there isn’t much sense in trying to deal with specific systems beyond seven days. Just strap in and hang on for a roller coaster ride.
STORM ALERT 2008: We had a packed house last night at the Northport Civic Center on a rainy night… thanks to everyone who came out to the show. I was “fashionably late” since I had to stay in the office and deal with thunderstorm issues. Our next show will be next Thursday, February 21, in Clay County at Lineville High School.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. This week’s show is a long one, but a good one. We focus on last week’s “Super Tuesday” tornado outbreak, and Tim Simpson of WREG-TV in Memphis is our guest.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day and stay warm!
