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Looks like the warmth will be with us a while plus we could see isolated storms again today. The radar yesterday afternoon showed a few thunderstorms east and northeast of Birmingham, but much of Central Alabama remained dry. A frontal boundary sagging through the Ohio River Valley today and into the Tennessee River Valley tomorrow will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has outlooked a fairly large area along that boundary for the possibility of severe storms today and Sunday.
Today and Sunday, a short wave moving across the Great Lakes will suppress the upper ridge somewhat allowing the front to sag into our area. But the ridge builds back strong come next Tuesday. Monday will be somewhat of a transition day as the frontal boundary washes out.
One thing to be watching for tomorrow will be the possibility of large clusters of thunderstorms forming off to our northwest and moving our way. These clusters are called mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) or mesoscale convective systems (MCS). With a northwesterly flow, small disturbances in the upper atmosphere can help to kickoff these long lasting storms which travel for hundreds of miles. Damaging wind and large hail would be the primary threats along with heavy rain. The lack of any real vertical wind shear should limit any tornado threat.
And with the upper ridge building back across the Southeast, it’s going to be just plain hot! Summertime is here NOW!!
What about the tropics? Alma, our visiting storm from the Eastern Pacific, made it into the Southwest Caribbean and the National Hurricane Center is issuing special statements on it. The center is so close to land that it is unlikely – but possible – for it to actually form a depression. It is expected to drift westward and bring heavy rains to Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.
The GFS has settled down somewhat but continues to show a nervous Gulf for much of the long range period. It is also showing a large ridge maintaining a firm position across the Southeast US through most of the voodoo period.
Special thanks to Columbiana Mayor Allan Lowe for the invitation to attend Music on Main last night. I had a great time listening to The Bayou Boys and talking with folks out there. Music on Main continues all summer long on Friday nights, so try to take in the free music on one of those evenings.
I should have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted tomorrow morning by 7 am or so. I hope that you have a great weekend. God bless.
-Brian-
