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It might be deja vu! Well, the latest mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a tad further north than the one we saw two days ago, but it is in a flow pattern that could bring it into North and Central Alabama by late morning or afternoon. At 6:45 am it was poised to move through Memphis, so we’ll have to see how they survive the onslaught of a second monster thunderstorm complex in just three days.
Low level moisture has created a low level cloud deck in many locations this morning plus if you have to get a break in the low clouds you’ll see the altocumulus or cirrus clouds above that. But some spots will see a bit of sun this morning especially as you go further south. Highs should be a bit warmer today than yesterday for most locations until and if that thunderstorm complex arrives or additional storms develop. The complex should generate some boundaries that will be the focus for additional storm development today.
The frontal zone that sagged into the area a couple of days ago is forecast to slowly migrate a little further north placing the focus for thunderstorms north of the Tennessee River Valley from about mid-week through the weekend. The ridge builds stronger from Monday into Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday, the ridge dampens and retrogrades in response to a strong short wave trough moving through the western Great Lakes area.
That trough is forecast to dive into the Southeast US on Saturday and Sunday but should push by fairly quickly. If this comes to pass then we could be looking at some cooler than typical highs by Sunday and Monday – certainly welcome with the relative heat we’ve had so far in June.
But the cooler treat could be short-lived as the GFS forecasts the ridge to build significantly by the end of June which will heat things up again. Also there are some hints at the tropics becoming more active toward the end of June, but that is way out in voodoo country, so we’ll watch it and speculate a little but it will probably change perhaps by the next run.
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Thanks for staying hooked in with the Weather Xtreme Videos. James Spann is expected back in the saddle tomorrow morning with an energized presentation after being refreshed by vacation. I hope your Sunday is good. Do be careful if the thunderstorm complex affects your area. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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