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We will be on your wild Alabama roller coaster ride for then next two weeks, so strap in and get ready for a series of big weather changes.
TODAY: This will be a very warm January day. Most places will experience a high today between 70 and 74 degrees, which is 20 degrees above normal, and very close to record levels for January 7 (record highs for today include 73 at Anniston, 74 at Birmingham and 77 at Tuscaloosa). No rain today; the sky will be partly sunny with a good breeze out of the south.
MID-WEEK RAIN EVENTS: We have two distinct opportunities for rain across Alabama this week. The first event will come tomorrow night as the lead short wave pushes showers and thunderstorms into our state. While a brief afternoon shower is possible in a few spots, the best chance of rain will come after 6:00 p.m. Due to limited instability and dynamics, this probably wont be a major rain event, with amounts of one-quarter to one-half inch for most communities around here. The chance of severe weather is only minimal.
We will have a break in the rain on Wednesday, but Thursday looks wet with the second wave rolling in here. This one should be a more efficient rain producer, with amounts of one to two inches. And, a few strong to severe storms will be possible based on the latest model runs. (surface based CAPE values over 500 and a good jet structure at 850 mb and 500 mb).
COLDER AIR RETURNS: Cold air will win the battle by Friday and the weekend; highs drop into the 50s on Friday and Saturday, and we won’t get out of the 40s on Sunday.
JAN 13-14 STORM: The idea of a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico is still on the board in the January 13-14 time frame (about one week from today). You know my philosophy; we take storm systems one at a time, and we really need to get the mid-week waves out of here before we can focus on this system with any degree of confidence. No doubt the models have trended southward with the surface features, which might keep the main precipitation shield over the southeast half of the state. This is not carved in stone; lets wait until Thursday night and we can talk with a degree of confidence.
VOODOO VENTURING: Sure looks like temperatures will average below normal for the rest of January, with occasional shots of milder air. Lots of interesting waves showing up… looks like a fun month to be in the weather office.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record an all new episode tonight; it should be available by 10:00 or so.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I am off to Tuscaloosa today for a weather program at Hillcrest High School this morning… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
