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Notice the question mark in the headline… but there is a chance this will be the last day of triple digit heat for a good part of Alabama for the year. We will be really close to 100 tomorrow, but as the upper air high begins to weaken slightly and moisture levels increase, we figure most places will see a high in the mid to upper 90s tomorrow.
Today will be the 14th day of 100 degree plus days for Birmingham this month; that breaks for record for the number of triple digit heat days in a single month. The old record was 12 days in September 1925. The high today will be back in the 100 to 106 degree range, much like yesterday.
WE NEED RAIN: That might be the understatement of the century. Our little tropical wave to the east has helped to generate a huge mass of rain and storms over the southern half of Georgia; this was not identified by the GFS or any other model to my knowledge. A few showers are even seen to the north, almost to the southern edge of Atlanta. As this wave moves to the west, it might be a smart thing to introduce a chance of a shower or storm over the eastern side of Alabama today. But, most communities will remain dry.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: With increasing moisture levels and a gradual weakening of the upper ridge (500 mb heights drop from 596 to 590 decameters in coming days), we expect highs mostly in the mid 90s with the daily opportunity of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface boundary will also help low level convergence for a few showers and storms.
That looks to be the story for the first half of next week. Then, late next week (about 7 to 8 days from now), a strong upper trough to the north will send a cold front down this way which should bring a nice increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms to the state.
LONG RANGE: The GFS still advertises a very nice long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. in the September 5-7 time frame, which drives a cold front down this way with a nice chance of showers and storms, followed by a shot of cooler and drier Canadian air. This is out in voodoo country, but this is September and it is about time for something like this to happen. Bring it on….
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day and STAY COOL.
