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We will be going some number crunching in the next few days to see how the summer of 2007 ranks in the record books (most of us weather people consider summer to be June, July, and August). While the heat in June and July wasn’t too bad, it really got out of hand this month; the average daily high in Birmingham during the month of August is 98.63 degrees, counting the data through yesterday.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Drier air is not all that far to the north of Alabama, but the surface boundary which marks the leading edge of that dry air has stopped over Tennessee (the surface chart on the Weather Xtreme video shows the front along I-59, but that looks too far south since Muscle Shoals still has a dewpoint of 70 this morning!). So, we remain in a moist airmass, and with the daytime heating process and the front around, showers and storms should fire up again this afternoon and tonight. I doubt if they will be as extensive as what we saw yesterday, but some neighborhoods will see a heavy downpour with thunder and lightning. And yes, take along the rain gear to the high school football games tonight. It won’t rain at every stadium, but there will be some storms around.
The 00Z run of the GFS is hinting at the deepest moisture sitting just east of Alabama over the holiday weekend, but the NAM keeps deeper moisture over the state and I believe that is the correct solution. So, we will have to dodge scattered showers and storms on a daily basis through Monday. The best chance of them, as usual, will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs over the weekend will be in the 86 to 91 degree range.
COLLEGE GAME DAY: A shower or storm is possible at both Tuscaloosa and Auburn tomorrow night; the kickoff temperature should be in the low 80s at both stadiums.
AT THE BEACH: If you are headed to the Gulf coast for some relaxation over the Labor Day weekend, there will be some scattered showers and storms around each day, but on the positive side expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day. The high along the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab on the Alabama Gulf coast last night was a toasty 89 degrees (F). In fact, the water is quite warm at all buoy locations across the Gulf of Mexico.
TROPICS: Sure looks like a tropical depression is forming east of the Windward Islands. This should become Tropical Storm Felix as it moves into the Caribbean tonight; the latest model runs keep this on a low latitude track that would ultimately take it into either Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula. We will keep an eye on it since that is certainly not carved in stone.
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