(Spoke too soon…the disturbance passing to our north has managed to fire up an isolated storm late this evening. It formed over Northeast Mississippi and has moved into Marion County, but lightning has decreased markedly in the last 30 minutes. Another shower was developing over Monroe County, Mississippi. It will move into Lamar County, Alabama. These showers will continue moving east. There is a chance that more isolated storms could form overnight.)
The warm air aloft kept a lid on thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
A passing upper level short wave has produced severe thunderstorms over eastern Tennessee tonight, but nothing here in Alabama.
Temperatures will fall into the middle 60s overnight. As they approach the dew point, we could see a little patchy fog or low clouds toward morning.
But skies will quickly clear and temperatures will warm into the middle 80s tomorrow afternoon. Instability values will be sky high. But only isolated storms will form, if any at all. Those that do form could be severre.
But ascent ahead of an approaching trough will trigger the development of showers and storms tomorrow evening.
With high instability and increasing dynamics, some of those could become severe, especially after 9 p.m. Tornadoes could be possible with discrete storms, as well as damaging winds and large hail. A line of storms will form as the trough apporaches, and will sweep into the state after midnight. It will then become more of a damaging wind event, but isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out in embedded supercells.
Pay attention to the weather tomorrow afternoon because of the extreme instability in case any storms form. Then make sure you have a source of weather information that will wake you through the overnight hours in cass warnings are required.
