Alabama is still getting a break from severe weather threats late this morning. Down over SE Alabama, numerous showers with locally heavy rain occurring from about Montgomery and Troy southeastward.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham cancelled the Tornado Watch for Barbour, Bullock, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery, Pike and Russell Counties.
Off to the west, a line of intense thunderstorms runs north to south from Eastern Arkansas down through the heart of Louisiana. Several of those have crossed the river into West and NW Mississippi.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted an additional Tornado Watch for 22 Mississippi counties. Essentially this extends the geographic area of the Tornado Watch. This one was in effect until 3:00 p.m. An earlier Tornado Watch covered much of Central and South Mississippi until 5:00 p.m.
A Tornado Watch is almost certain for Alabama at some point this afternoon.
THE GULF COAST
It is interesting to note that the Alabama/Mississippi coast and part of the NW Florida coast are open for business from the Gulf of Mexico. The intense thunderstorms that earlier blocked an influx of rich deep moisture are now further over in North Florida and Georgia.
The morning upper-air sounding at Birmingham (Shelby County Airport) showed a lifted index of minus 5.0. Anything between minus 4 and minus 7 indicates a large amount of instability. In fact, years ago in the old U.S. Weather Bureau and later the National Weather Service, we considered a minus 4 reading a red flag.
The SWEAT Index was 441 this morning. Anything over 400 is considered conducive to possible tornadoes. The upper-air sounding also indicated that our thunderstorms today will be moving generally from west to east at 35-40 mph.
Bottom line: nothing has changed. Keep alert this afternoon and this evening. We will have frequent updates.
