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WE HAVE PICTURES: Scroll down for some shots from last night’s lunar eclipse. For most folks, the clouds spoiled the party.
Beneficial rain headlines our forecast for Alabama for the next 36 hours. It might not seem like it, but we actually have a two inch rain deficiency for 2008 (in Birmingham), and this event should knock that out and get us back to where we should be. Model extraction data from the NAM shows 2.21″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is much drier with 0.85. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in between, but I think the NAM is closer. We can pretty much promise 1 to 2 inches of rain for Alabama through tomorrow night.
ICE TO THE NORTH: Ice storm warnings are up for the general area from Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Louisville, Kentucky, as a shallow layer of very cold air will set the stage for some major problems up that way. A freezing rain advisory is up as far south as Memphis. The leading edge of this cold air is moved down into Alabama this morning. At 5:00… Muscle Shoals reports 34 degrees.
The front will stall out over Central Alabama today, and overrunning rain is likely north of the front, with a few thunderstorms down over South Alabama. Here along the I-20 corridor, we figure highs will be only in the low 50s, and north of Birmingham some folks won’t get out of the 40s. It will be a chilly, wet day.
STRONG STORMS TOMORROW: The front will lift northward late tonight and early tomorrow as a warm front, putting Alabama in the warm sector. Then, a strong short wave will bring another good round of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. SPC maintains the best chance of organized severe weather south of Montgomery, but I sure can’t rule out the chance of a a few strong to severe storms up this way; the NAM now shows surface based CAPE values to 1,000 j/kg at Tuscaloosa, and 800 j/kg at Birmingham tomorrow afternoon. The primary threat will be from damaging straight line winds, but an isolated tornado somewhere can’t be ruled out.
The storms will end tomorrow night, and the sky will clear on Saturday with a high in the upper 50s. A strong impulse aloft will move over Alabama on Sunday, but with a dry airmass in place we won’t mention any rain at this time. I do think we will need to drop our afternoon high temperature forecast Sunday; for now we are showing highs in the 60s on our seven day forecast, but the latest GFS MOS shows a high of 55 Sunday. Lets see the 12Z run, and we will make the adjustment if needed.
MORE STORMS NEXT WEEK: An impressive system will blow through Alabama on Tuesday of next week; this one will bring another risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along with some decent rain amounts. We can be specific over the weekend… lets get this ongoing system out of here before we really focus on the Tuesday event.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS shows storm events on March 1, 4, and 7. No time to be weary in the weather office with this kind of pattern. And, of course, those dates will change. But, the weather will remain very active well into March.
STORM ALERT 2008 TONIGHT: We will be at Lineville High School down in Clay County tonight… the show begins at 7:00; doors open at 5:00. We expect a huge crowd, so get there early for a good seat and a t-shirt!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
This is a busy busy day… this morning I will be at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, along with Ashley Brand and Brian Peters, for their annual career fair. Then, we hit the road for tonight’s Storm Alert show. Due to the travel schedule, I won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but I will post a discussion. And, J.B. will be here for updates as this big rain event unfolds….
