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What a day we had yesterday – or perhaps what an evening we had. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm map sure tells the story with an interesting strip of storm reports running from North Central Oklahoma all the way to East Central Alabama. Some of those reports came from thunderstorms that developed ahead of the main mesoscale convective complex (MCC), but the vast majority of those preliminary reports – including 12 tornadoes, 175 wind damage events, and 92 hail reports – came with the MCC that moved in the northwesterly flow. By the way, in case you missed it yesterday, the MCC was really hauling moving from Memphis to the Alabama-Mississippi line in about 2 hours and 20 minutes.
A collection of storms was moving through the northern third of Alabama this morning, but nothing nearly as impressive as the complex yesterday.
The northwesterly flow pattern will remain with us today and Sunday, so we’ll need to be vigilant for another complex to form and move across the northern half of our state. In fact, the GFS was picking up on that especially Sunday afternoon.
For the upcoming week, it appears the ridge builds but not as strongly as previous GFS runs have suggested. This marks a fairly substantial change in the forecast solution and would keep Central Alabama stormier for much of the next seven days with primarily diurnal convection.
Rainfall amounts will continue to be quite varied just due to the convective nature of the weather. Amounts of 1 inch are possible over the next five days, however, isolated amounts could run in the 2 to 3 inch range. But temperatures are likely to change little with highs around 90 or so and lows around 70.
Peering further afield, the GFS is still hanging onto the idea of a closed low toward the end of June which could produce a fairly wet period as well as temperatures somewhat cooler than typical for late June. Consistency on this solution is showing up from run to run, so confidence in that solution is inching upward.
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I should have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am Sunday morning. I want to credit Mr. Spann with a good forecast to be off on vacation this week. Enjoy your Saturday and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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