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RIGHT NOW: Today’s forecast worked out very nicely; the sun broke out early in the day, and with a sunny sky we are very close to 50 degrees right now with light wind. Tomorrow will be windy and colder, with a high in the 40s and wind chill index values near freezing much of the day. Model guidance continues to show warmer temperatures for Saturday morning, and we will revise our numbers up a bit. But, I still think most places reach the 20s.
The weekend will be dry; the high Saturday will be in the 50s, and the latest GFS hints we might rise into the low 60s Sunday afternoon.
MONDAY: I always encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video we produce, which provides all of the graphics associated with this discussion. As I wrote on the midday update, I am not that interested in run to run variance right now… but taking more of an ensemble approach with potential winter storms like this.
The global models (GFS and Euro) have been trending northward with the surface low and the jet structure in the last 24 hours. The 12Z runs continue to hint the best chance of snow Monday will come from Tupelo to Muscle Shoals to Nashville, with a cold rain to the south. The rain could change to snow Monday night all the way down to Montgomery before ending, but with little accumulation down this way. Remember, this is not a forecast, simply model output. It is way too early to make a call on this storm, in terms of specifics.
The heaviest snow Monday could be as far north as Louisville, or as far south as Montgomery. It might be Huntsville or Birmingham. We simply don’t know yet. I will make a “first call” forecast here on the blog on the afternoon discussion as there will be reasonable skill at that time.
As the low deepens and moves northeast of Alabama on Tuesday, some folks around the Appalachians, and points west, could have a blizzard on their hands. For now it looks like the big snow event will be west of the major east coast cities.
One thing is for sure; Tuesday looks very cold; the GFS suggests we will stay in the 20s all day Tuesday with a chance of flurries in the moisture wrapping around the back side of the departing and deepening storm.
BOTTOM LINE: Too early to make a specific forecast call, but some folks around the Southeast U.S. should have a major snow event on their hands Monday. Stay tuned…
STORM ALERT 2009: Need to head out to meet our chopper; we are flying down to Greene County High School for opening night of Storm Alert 2009… we will be at Greene County High School, and the show begins at 7:00. Be sure and get there early for a good seat.
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I had a great time with the kindergarten kids this morning at Creek View Elementary in Alabaster; be looking for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
