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It’s definitely NOT what we need, but it is going to feel a little nicer outside today courtesy of the weak cold front that moved through Central Alabama yesterday. The air behind the front is a tad drier, so our dew points are only in the upper 50s this morning making it feel a bit nicer. That feeling should last all day and even into tomorrow before dew points climb back into the mid 60s by Tuesday. The drier air also means no chance for rain over the next couple of days.
But I’m struggling with the forecast Tuesday as a trough moves down the east side of the ridge with a closed low developing in the upper atmosphere over Georgia and South Carolina on Wednesday. The GFS plays it very close to the chest with precipitation and does not generate much except to our east. With the northerly flow we may see slightly cooler daytime highs, too. But with “exceptional drought” condition here, I want to see rain, so I’m hoping that the GFS may be underdoing our rain chances. Unfortunately, the rain will still be in the form of scattered showers, so it won’t break the drought, but it would surely provide some relief.
Another possible source of relief, but one I would not place any bets on just yet, is the formation of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) or system (MCS) to our northwest. The GFS hints at one Monday afternoon in the vicinity of St. Louis. With a northwesterly flow aloft, these MCCs can travel hundreds of miles. The GFS does not bring that one all the way to Alabama, but it is certainly not an impossible happening.
Back to the Southwest Atlantic closed low, it opens up Thursday and inches eastward on Friday taking any serious hope of precipitation away from Central Alabama. This puts us back into a widely scattered afternoon shower pattern for the upcoming City Stages weekend. But as we nudge into voodoo land a week from Tuesday (that’s June 19), the GFS shows a weakness in the 500 millibar flow with a hint at some sort of development in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. This might be the formation of a tropical system, but we have crossed into voodoo country.
Even further into voodoo land, the GFS brings a strong trough through the area on June 21 but returns us to a more typical June pattern by the end of the cycle around June 25th.
James Spann will be back tomorrow morning bright and early with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope that you have a great Sunday and a wonderful upcoming week. God bless.
-Brian-
