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A few folks – like me – are waking up to some thunder this morning with a few early morning thunderstorms in northeast Tuscaloosa County, Southwest Shelby County, and across parts of Coosa, Tallapoosa, and Chilton counties. My rain gauge missed the heaviest showers this morning so I got only 4 hundredths of an inch of rain – settled the dust a bit! And additional showers were still developing in Jefferson and St. Clair counties.
Showers will continue off and on across Central Alabama today with a period of lesser activity expected from late morning into early afternoon. Afternoon heating should be the primary driving force for additional scattered thunderstorm development later today. Looks like the pattern changes very little for Sunday, but then we’re looking at a fairly major change in the overall pattern that will bring us some relief from the heat as well as a week of unsettled weather with good chances for rain and some relief from the overall dry conditions, too.
The upper ridge which has become somewhat elongated is gradually shifting westward. In it’s place we will see the development of a substantial trough over the eastern half of the country. This will bring a cold front through the Ohio River Valley and into the Tennessee River Valley by about mid-week and produce a number of days of numerous showers and thunderstorms. While the front will provide an additional focus for the development of storms, much of the shower activity will be tied to daily heating with the prime time for showers during the afternoons and evenings. Clouds from showers and additional moisture and storms will help to knock temperatures back probably into the upper 80s bringing some welcome relief from the heat.
The trough digs into the eastern US at mid-week and is expected to stick with us at least through next weekend. This should keep our weather unsettled as daily numerous showers continue to bring good rain chances. Looks like the rain chances are good enough that over the next five days just about everyone ought to see some rain. Rainfall amounts could reach 2 to 3 inches in places. This should help to mitigate the effects of the dry conditions that have been impacting us over the last month or so.
Main threat for severe weather will continue along the frontal boundary to our north and northeast today and Sunday. We remain susceptible to isolated severe storms today and Sunday with damaging wind or downbursts being the primary threat. We’ll need to keep our eye on the potential for somewhat more organized severe weather on Day 3, Monday, as the front moves closer to the area to become a player in storm development.
The tropics remain quiet.
Long range GFS modeling suggests that the upper ridge will come back in the latter part of July, but then, after all, it is summer and the presence of the upper ridge is a semi-permanent feature for this time of year.
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-Brian-
