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RED LETTER DAY? As you read on the posts below, SPC has greatly expanded the moderate risk of severe weather for tomorrow, and they have indicated the possibility of an upgrade to a high risk for some areas….
TONIGHT: We now have a moderate risk of severe storms tonight for northern Arkansas and southern Missouri; we will be watching this region with interest. Instability values out that way are pretty limited, but very strong dynamic forcing will come into play later tonight as the upper trough approaches. Around here, cirrus clouds will continue to thicken, and low clouds should form after midnight as dewpoints continue to rise.
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS: We still expect a round of rain and storms tomorrow morning as a warm front moves northward across the state. These storms probably won’t be severe, and they could taper off by late morning. Then, the sun should break out at times, helping to push the temperature into the low to mid 70s. And, when the warm front moves north of here, surface dewpoints of 60 to 65 should advect into this part of Alabama from the south.
Here are some projected severe weather parameters for 6:00 p.m. tomorrow…
Surface Based CAPE: 801 j/kg
0 to 3 km Storm Relative Helicity: 418 m2/s2
0 to 1 km Shear: 31 knots
LCL: 365 meters
STP: 2.31
If the scenario we describe above comes to pass, we could very well have a major severe weather event here. However, if clouds and rain persist most of the day, then that will really minimize the threat. Models are strongly suggesting we will have a break in the rain during the midday hours with some decent intervals of sunshine, and we are certainly are going to have to plan on a very significant risk.
TIMING: The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. The threat might linger to midnight over the far eastern part of the state.
CALL TO ACTION: Long time readers know I am not a big fan of schools dismissing early in rural parts of Alabama since a large percentage of students live in mobile homes. I do not encourage any school system to make a decision about early dismissal until early tomorrow morning, after we have had a chance to review new model data. I understand that you don’t want the kids stuck at school for several hours past 3:00, but on the other hand I sure would rather have kids in a school building as opposed to a mobile home. There were some children critically injured in Dumas, Arkansas this past Saturday that were in mobile homes when the tornado blew through the town.
Everyone will need to be close to a good source of severe weather information tomorrow; a NOAA Weather Radio should be in operation in every Alabama home and business. FORGET THE SIRENS. And, of course, every home and business needs to have a plan of action in case a tornado warning is issued for their area.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny on Friday with a high in the 60s, but colder air rolls in here on Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough sharpens over the eastern U.S. We might have a hard time getting out of the 40s on Saturday, and some clouds should drop southward into the northern third of Alabama. Then, we go below freezing both Sunday and Monday morning. We expect maximum sunshine on Sunday with a high in the 50s.
We warm up next week, and at this point the next rain event seems to be around March 10 for Alabama. First glance doesn’t suggest a big severe weather threat, but we have a long way to go before that system arrives.
REMINDERS:
*You can see our live, Pinpoint Doppler Radar on our live stream when we are not in “wall to wall” severe weather coverage… just go to our main weather page and click on the live stream button.
*That same live stream will carry our severe weather coverage in the event tornado warnings are issued.
*Check the blog often for updates as this weather event unfolds… we will crank out frequent updates during the next 36 hours, needless to say.
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I will have the next ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… again check the blog often for updates…
