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ANOTHER WARM DAY: I really don’t expect much change in the weather today across Alabama; the high should be pretty close to 80 degrees around here, which is 15 degrees above normal for March 13. The sky will be partly sunny, as the deeper moisture remains west of the state, where a few showers might break out this afternoon over Mississippi.
MID-WEEK RAIN? The deep upper low now over far West Texas will slowly move east and weaken during the next few days. We will continue to mention a chance of showers tomorrow afternoon, but the best chance of them will be along and west of I-65. Then, statewide, we will have a risk of showers and storms on Thursday as the wave comes through. However, the 00Z GFS shows a mass of convection on the Gulf coast, which might block the good inflow of moisture up into this part of the state. And, with the weakening dynamics, we don’t expect any severe weather problems around here on Thursday. For now, it looks like rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half inch can be expected.
FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: Most of the rain should be east of Alabama by Friday, and the weekend ahead looks dry. The 00Z GFS came in much warmer for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… we have been talking about highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for the weekend, but the new run is suggesting the high will be closer to 70. Lets don’t buy into that just yet; but just be aware that we might have to nudge the numbers upward for the weekend. I don’t think anyone will have problems with that.
NEXT WEEK: Generally speaking, the weather looks pretty benign across the Deep South. Temperatures above normal, rainfall below normal. Looking pretty good for the kids that are taking spring break; we don’t see any major storm systems on the board that would produce any severe weather or extended period of rain for the Southeast U.S.
LONG RANGE: Check out that system that shows up around March 27 on the 00Z GFS… very sharp upper trough; deepening surface low moving from the Gulf over to the Atlantic coast. Looks like one of those classic late season winter storms for parts of the Deep South. But, don’t get too excited, that is pure voodoo now and it will probably be gone on the next run.
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These are the busy days… I spoke Sunday night at Barfield Baptist Church in Clay County, then it was a long drive down to Enterprise where I spent the day yesterday with Bill Castle working on our annual March prime-time weather special that will air on Sunday March 25 from 6:00 until 7:00 p.m. There are many stories of heros and angels that are rising from the tornado debris in Coffee County. Today I am headed up to Etowah County where I will be speaking at Glencoe Elementary; I will be back in the office and should have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30. Enjoy the warm weather!
