Quiet as the proverbial church mouse across Alabama at midmorning–not even any showers or thunderstorms and we don’t look for any of those today.
Focus is on the big event occurring Saturday. (Scroll down to the morning video discussion by James to get a full account of all the technicalities and prospects, but here are a few additional notes about what may happen across Alabama Saturday and Saturday night.)
* Main threat from midday until possibly midnight, but some strong storms could start over West Alabama earlier. These possible events:
…..Large hail
…..Damaging wind
…..Possible tornado
…..Set up may become favorable for a few violent long-track tornadoes
…..A long-track tornado is most often one of the stronger ones and it can stay on the ground for miles. Most of those cause devastating damage.
…..The mathematical possibility of one of those hitting your home is rather small, but it is best to be prepared.
…..During the Super Outbreak in April 1974, there were several F5 tornadoes and a couple of those were on the ground for almost 100 miles.
* There were 32 tornadoes reported yesterday, clustered mainly over the Texas Panhandle, the west edge of Kansas and extreme Eastern Colorado. There were 17 high wind reports and 57 reports of hail. Remember: those numbers could be reduced later after storm surveys because the NWS may have gotten more than one report on the same storm.
* At 9:30 this morning, there were no severe weather watches anywhere in the USA. The Storm Prediction Center has a large part of the Central USA under a Slight Risk today extending from the Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas coast northward to include much of Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois. Within that Slight Risk is an Enhanced Moderate Risk covering all of Arkansas, North Louisiana and about the west half of Mississippi.
* On Saturday, the Moderate Risk area is shifted eastward to include all of Mississippi, most of Tennessee, Alabama (except the extreme SE) and the east edges of Arkansas and Louisiana.
* Do not confuse the word Moderate with modest. A Moderate Risk should be considered very serious.
* There is not a single severe thunderstorm or tornado warning posted anywhere in the USA as of 9:30 a.m. The last severe thunderstorm warning was at 3:31 a.m. from Norman,Oklahoma. The last tornado warning was issued at 9:43 last night from the NWS in Lubbock, Texas.
FINAL NOTE
We are going to be as busy as an earthworm trying to cross 280 this weekend. Please don’t rush out to the supermarket and buy all the Pop-Tarts and vienna sausage before I can get there.
AND THIS…
We have already received a few hints that we are just trying to scare people. Absolutely not true. I, for one, am hoping and praying that this threat will just fall apart and that we will be wrong. I am 100% certain that my colleagues feel the same way.
