The Saturday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Looks as if 2006 will go out on a wet note and a bang for folks along the Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked an area of southern Mississippi, much of Louisiana, and southeastern Arkansas for a slight risk of storms today. The warm sector will be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast region, but a large rain shield will affect much of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama late today and into the first half of Sunday. This will bring rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, enough to put December on track for the climatological normal rainfall.
A squall line was in progress in southern Louisiana this morning and was expected to continue tracking eastward today. With the surface and upper level lows well to the west-northwest, low and mid level flows and the corresponding shear should weaken across Mississippi and Alabama tonight. I think we could hear some thunder with the storms and heavy rain is a very real possibility overnight, primarily from 9 pm to 6 am.
The front trudges eastward Monday to the Southeast US coastline taking the rain with it. Rain will be ending from the west of Sunday morning. I expect the rain to clear Central Alabama by late morning and clear East Alabama by 3 pm or so. Clouds will hang tough, though. Sunshine should return in full force on Tuesday.
By Thursday a new upper level storm system drops into northern Mexico with a surface low forecast to develop in the Northwest Gulf. The surface system will track northeastward late Thursday and into Friday bringing another round of wet weather to Central Alabama. There is also a risk for severe weather especially along the Central Gulf Coast once again.
The continuation of southwesterly flow aloft will help to keep the Southeast US out of the deep freeze for at least the next week to 10 days. In the longer range, the GFS maintains a long wave trough position over the western US with an active pattern of troughs coming through the flow. So at the moment there is no reason to believe we’ll see any major changes in our weather with relatively mild conditions and rain every three to four days. Of course, we’re in voodoo land, but the comforting note is that this trend has been maintained giving a bit more confidence in the overall pattern.
As 2006 winds down, I hope that you have a great weekend. I’ll be out in the yard today doing some leave removal – sound so much nicer than raking, doesn’t it? I should have the Sunday Weather Xtreme Video posted by 9 am or so. God bless.
-Brian-
