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I feel like letting go a big old war hoop since it looks like the prospects of some wet weather for the next several days are pretty high!! Radar this morning was already showing rain developing across Central Mississippi and Southeast Alabama, and I just hope it continues to fill in – we need the rain. Jason Simpson has a great piece in the Storm Alert production which shows just how bad the drought is.
But the main weather event for us is not today or tomorrow, but a potentially widespread severe weather event for Tuesday. Before I leave rain amounts, it sure looks like widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts will be common when the event is over. This should be quite beneficial for us but it won’t break the drought – it will take many months of good rains to do that.
Tuesday, a strong trough comes out of West Texas with strong low level southerly flow ahead of it at the surface setting the stage for widespread severe weather episode. The SPC has a large are of the Eastern US including all of Alabama outlooked for severe weather on Tuesday. This run of the GFS appears to slow the event down a bit. I still think we should be prepared for the possibility of severe storms by late afternoon on Tuesday, but the GFS would suggest the main weather is likely to come well after dark – perhaps as late as midnight or a little after. But remember, the details are often in the small scale features which are impossible to forecast with a high degree of certainty this far out. The stage is certainly being set with good deep moisture, fairly strong instability with surface temperatures here well into the 70s, a screaming 850-millibar jet at over 60 knots, a good upper level jet, and the approach of a strong upper trough.
Model soundings suggest CAPE values only into the 500 range but helicity values were way up there, so this one will need to be watched carefully. Damaging wind looks pretty certain, but there is a good possibility of tornadoes as well. Besides watching the primary elections, many of us will be closely watching the development of the weather.
The front exits Alabama during the day Wednesday and we turn colder. Not sure we’ll see much temperature change on Wednesday with values in the 40s.
Another trough drops into the East on Thursday and Friday, but the bulk of the cold air is pushed off to the east. That should leave us in a fairly seasonal situation into next weekend when the upper pattern relaxes into a zonal flow with weak ridging across much of the US.
Voodoo country remains active with another system around Valentines Day and another one at the end of the cycle. As far as rain goes, bring it on. I’m happy to see the active pattern continue as long as it brings rain our way every few days. Might disrupt my tennis playing but I’ll live with it.
Don’t forget the Storm Alert 2008 Tour continues with our next stop at the Anniston City Meeting Center on Thursday, February 7th. Doors open at 5 pm and the program begins at 7 pm. Hope to see you there. All the details can be found here. Pardon my goof, I think I said Oxford Civic Center in the video.
James Spann will be back bright and early tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope that you have a wonderful Sunday. God bless.
-Brian-
