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Computer models used extensively in weather forecasting usually converge on a good solution as you get closer to the event. I detailed the model differences yesterday between the two major models, the GFS and the European (ECMWF). Well, we’re 24 hours further along but these two models are sticking to their guns.
Currently a weak front is washing out in the Southeast US. You can still see the boundary in the surface conditions by looking at the dew points which are in the lower 60s in the Tennessee Valley and in the lower 70s across South Alabama. It should wash out and produce a few showers in the Southeast Alabama area much like we saw yesterday afternoon in East Central Alabama where about 5 or 6 showers developed. The upper ridge is strong just to our west having been nudged westward by a trough moving through the westerlies.
But much attention is on the Gulf where a large area of disturbed weather has developed and brought a good deal of rain to the Florida Peninsula. The big question is where this system will go. And there in lies the model madness. The various hurricane model plots show essentially three routes – east across Florida, west into South Texas, and northward into the Southeast US. The GFS represents the system going over North Florida which certainly seems reasonable. However, the European seems to have the correct flow for the moment as the overall disturbance seems to have been sliding slightly westward. The question will be how strong and in exactly what location the ridge will maintain itself for the next several days. And at the moment, I think either solution could be correct.
For us the bad news is that either solution will leave us hot and dry for the upcoming week.
The GFS takes the system into the Atlantic across Florida and builds the ridge back into our area. A weak front during the latter part of next week could bring a little relief to the high humidity with lowered dew points. While the ECMWF takes the tropical system into Texas, it also builds the ridge over us keeping us dry.
By the end of next week and into the weekend, the ridge builds across the southern tier of the US keeping us hot and dry.
With the westerlies still well to our north, the only risk of severe weather is along the northern tier of the US.
QPF forecasts keep us dry but produce upwards of 12 inches of rain with the tropical system over the next five days, that mainly in the Gulf.
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-Brian-
