Quick look at GFS, Canadian, and NAM (now through Monday morning). These models seem to agree somewhat with the European, that the colder air may be a little slower in getting here, and/or the low may be a little bit north of the ideal track for a major BHM snow event. The low typically follows a front, so where a frontal zone can set up will be critical. These models would put the best zone of snow from north MS into middle TN, maybe including HSV. But, with a strong system developing, the upper trough may have enough dynamics to overcome the cold air coming in, so we could change over to snow in BHM Monday afternoon, and still pick up 1″. Maybe.
Still very early for speculation…and it does look like someone between BHM and Louisville on I-65 will get a big snow, maybe 8″. But, with the GFS backing off on precipitation in the cold air advection, and the new NAM showing the low in central MS, the chances for a big snow in BHM just went down some to me. Then again, even a 1″ snow here would be a very big deal.
Something to remember when you look at model data. The precipitation shown at a given time is typically the precipitation in the 6 or 12 hours before that time, not what is occurring at that time. So, if you see the cold air (850 mb 0 C isotherm, 1000-500 mb 544 thickness line) arriving in BHM with precip on the same map, that precip could have fallen earlier in the 6 or 12 hour period.
