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Before we get into the severe weather risk, it sure looks like today will be the warmest day so far in 2007; the models continue to trend upward on temperatures for today… looks like we are headed for the upper 70s. Somebody over in West Alabama might even touch the big 80 degree mark. We expect a good supply of sunshine today with a few high cirrus clouds invading the state later in the day.
MODERATE RISK: The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe weather defined for tomorrow for most of Central Alabama, extending into the eastern part of Mississippi, and eastward into Georgia. Here are some severe weather parameters for late tomorrow afternoon from the NAM:
SB CAPE: 426 k/kg
Lifted Index: -3.4
0 to 3 km Helicity: 467 m2/s2
SWEAT Index: 414
Surface dewpoint: 63
850 mb winds: 57 knots
500 mb winds: 81 knots
The instability values, as always in early season events, are a bit questionable. But, most of the other elements are there. A strong, negative tilt upper trough providing a very diffluent flow across Alabama, an intense surface cyclone over the nation’s bread basket (982 mb low near Des Moines), strong wind fields, and strong veering of the wind with altitude.
We should have round of rain and possible storms tomorrow morning with a warm front pushing northward across the state. That is one of the keys to the event; if the clouds and rain linger through much of the day, that would minimize the severe weather threat due a stable boundary layer. However, if the rain ends by mid-morning and the sun breaks out for a while, that would set the stage for numerous supercell storms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening with the chance of significant tornadoes.
The greatest window for significant severe weather will be from about 2:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. Once again, every Alabamian will need to be close to a good source of weather information throughout the day and into tomorrow night.
FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: Sunshine returns on Friday with a high in the 60s, but a strong impulse will move down the backside of the upper trough Friday night, and will help to pull down some pretty chilly air for the weekend. We will have a hard time reaching the 50s on Saturday and Sunday, and freezing temperatures are likely both Sunday and Monday morning. Clouds will probably circulate down into the northern third of Alabama on Saturday, but the sun should be out in full force on Sunday.
LONG RANGE: The GFS (06Z run) hints the next chance of rain will come around March 10, but this time the trough is positive tilt and for now it does not paint a severe weather look. But, of course, that is in voodoo land.
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WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
What a great day yesterday; I really enjoyed the drive down to Marion; I spoke at the morning chapel service at Judson College. And, last night we wrapped up the Storm Alert 2007 tour in Bessemer; I will post some pictures here a little later. I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the spring-like warmth today!
