I’m on the road in LA (Lower Alabama) – Troy specifically – and while I have an Internet connection, the bandwidth is just not something to write home about, so there won’t be a video this morning.
What an evening we had last night as winter weather affected Central Alabama for the third time this month! But at 6 am, temperatures across the area were above the freezing mark and radar was clear with only minor patches of any drizzle lingering. Fog lingered in some locations, too, so if you have to get out early this morning, use caution with some low visibility as well as the possibility of a few lingering slick spots on bridges or overpasses. But it looks like conditions will gradually be improving today. Not much if any sun today and temperatures won’t change much as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 40s.
Sunshine returns Sunday – tomorrow – as high pressure at the surface settles into the area while a fairly strong short wave just to our north sweeps by and deepens a tad over the East Coast.
Monday we should see an upper level ridge move over the area as the surface high shifts eastward. This pattern should return us to temperatures above normal once again as afternoon highs climb into the lower 60s – about ten degrees warmer than typical late January values. That warmth stays with us on Tuesday with good moisture return ahead of an approaching cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
Because of good moisture return, some possibility of severe weather exists with this system even though the strongest dynamics are further north. That system zips by quickly with clearing weather on Wednesday. And our temperatures should drop back toward typical numbers with lows near freezing and highs in the middle 50s. It would also appear that we get another beneficial rain. Rainfall amounts should come in around one half inch with some spots possibly picking up as much as one inch in stronger storms.
The GFS promises a strong, relatively low latitude short wave on Thursday that is showing a strong possibility of severe weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction folks have outlooked an area on Day 7, Friday, for severe weather that covers just about all of Alabama as well as a good chunk of real estate surrounding us. The strong short wave will generate a surface low along the Texas-Oklahoma border on Wednesday night that will move east and northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic states by late Friday. The combination of a strong short wave, good low level moisture return, and what appears to be a favorable wind profile could lead to a fairly significant severe weather episode. This is seven days out, so we’re verging on voodoo country, but this system will certainly bear watching.
Speaking of voodoo country, another deep trough to our west on February 3rd brings a round of warming weather to the Southeast for early February along with a storm system around the 5th. The GFS is hinting at yet another winter weather possibility around February 7th with a surface low along the Gulf Coast. Still more wet weather is being predicted around the 9th and 10th as the overall pattern across the country remains quite active. I think the message we see from the latest run is that the wild weather ride of 2008 just keeps on!
Again, sorry for the lack of video this morning. I’m off to Troy State University shortly for the Pike Piddlers Storytelling Festival. I’m really looking forward to stories from excellent tellers like Alabama’s very own Kathryn Tucker Windham, Donald Davis (one of my favorites), Sheila Kay Adams, and Andy Offutt Irwin. Storytelling has become a big interest of mine and Alabama has some great festivals with superb storytellers. It is so nice to step back away from all of our electronics and visual stimulation for some down home stories. I hope you have a wonderful Saturday. God bless.
-Brian-
