Moist Air Going Nowhere

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SUN AND STORMS: Still not expecting much change in the overall weather here through tomorrow; partly sunny, warm, and very humid days with scattered showers and storms, mostly likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Both the GFS and the NAM suggest the best coverage of showers and storms will come tomorrow as a disturbance over Southeast Texas gets closer, but trying to forecast the coverage and placement of afternoon convection in the summer in Alabama is very hard to do. Afternoon highs will stay mostly in the 86 to 89 degree range. And, like recent days, where storms form, they won’t move much, and some spots will see heavy amounts of rain. On the positive side, these afternoon showers are helping to keep soil moisture at high levels across our state, something we like to see going into summer.

THE WEEKEND: Scattered showers and storms will remain possible Saturday, and possibly numerous at times, especially over the southern two-thirds of the state, as the impulse aloft hangs around just southwest of here. The storms should thin out a bit Sunday, but they will still be possible during the heat of the day. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds both days with a high in the upper 80s Saturday, followed by low 90s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Afternoon storms should be widely scattered over the first half of the week, but the GFS continues the idea of an upper trough forming over the eastern third of the nation over the latter half of the week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the model pushes a surface cold front in here Thursday with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by dry, continental air Friday. If this happens to be correct, then Friday of next week will be sunny with lower humidity and no afternoon showers and storms. But, this is beyond seven days, meaning it is in the land of voodoo, and don’t be surprised if that idea vanishes in coming runs. It is certainly possible, but we all know cold fronts have a hard time getting down here this time of the year.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow, with only about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine each day. Showers and storms will become more scattered over the weekend, with about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. Highs along the coast will be mostly in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

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