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SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE: We begin the work week with a stalled front south of here; dewpoints range from 52 at Muscle Shoals to 67 at Ozark. We will maintain a pretty decent chance of showers statewide today, but the chance of any severe weather over the northern half of the state is minimal with a fairly stable airmass in place.
I am not convinced the long awaited intrusion of dry air will really be a big deal tomorrow, as we thought late last week. For now we will not mention any risk of showers tomorrow for North Alabama, but the southern counties will still have a risk of showers and storms, and moist air returns northward quickly tomorrow night. The rest of the week will feature moist, tropical air, and some risk of showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis Wednesday through Friday. Of course, the rain won’t be continuous, and there will be some intervals of sunshine along the way, but the pattern looks generally soggy, with potential for a few strong storms along the way. The main organized severe weather threat will remain up north, however, and SPC has already defined a moderate risk of severe weather for the St. Louis area on Wednesday.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change; a chance of scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the moist air staying in place. Then, on Sunday, a surface boundary with some decent upper air support will be approaching, so if anything showers and storms will become more numerous with some potential for strong to severe storms. Drier air is forecast to slip into Alabama early next week by the GFS, but most likely, it will be temporary.
Out into voodoo land, the GFS shows the moist, tropical air hanging tough for much of the rest of May with some risk of scattered showers and storms on a daily basis. Nothing to suggest we will get a big push of dry air that will last for a long period of time as the main belt of westerlies stays just north of here.
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This morning I am running up to Jackson County with my pal Bill Castle for a “special assignment”… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
