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THIS MORNING: A band of showers is morning northward through Alabama, associated with a warm front. To the north, Huntsville has a dewpoint of 49, while south of the front Mobile’s dewpoint is 62. The front will continue moving northward today, and we expect a high in the 70s. There is an amazing model difference in MOS output; the GFS is printing a high of 69 today, while the NAM is at 80. As usual, the truth is somewhere between those values. We will maintain the risk of a few scattered showers this afternoon and tonight, but I don’t think it rains all that much with little in the way of a trigger.
TOMORROW: The bulk of the action will remain west of Alabama through tomorrow night. Sure, there could be a few showers around tomorrow, but the stronger storms will remain over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Tennessee, where the dual threat of flash flooding and severe weather will continue. We will rise into the mid to upper 70s tomorrow, and the sun should break out a times.
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: More forecast changes. Both the NAM and the GFS now show a positive tilt upper trough on Saturday, and not as strong. And, cooler air moves in at the surface, and most of the rain Saturday will be post-frontal, which means several things…
*No threat of severe weather or flooding
*Saturday will be much cooler than we have been forecasting, with a high only around 60 degrees
*The rain will come mostly during the day, ending Saturday evening. Maybe even by the time the trick or treaters do their thing.
As I mentioned early in the week, this is, and continues to be a challenging forecast. But now that we are within 72 hours of the event, confidence is much higher.
Sunday still looks like a great day with a sunny sky and a high in the upper 60s.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few widely scattered showers are possible for the high school games tonight and tomorrow night, but most stadiums will be dry. Game temperatures will be mostly in the upper 60s. For Saturday’s Magic City Classic at Legion Field in Birmingham (2:30 p.m. kickoff), rain is likely during the game with temperatures hovering in the 58 to 61 degree range. Auburn will host Ole Miss Saturday morning with an 11:30 kickoff; the sky will be mostly cloudy, and some rain is likely during that game with temperatures holding close to 60 degrees. UAB is on the road at UTEP in El Paso, Texas (2:00 kickoff); the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 65 degrees.
TALLADEGA WEATHER: For Saturday’s Mountain Dew 250, the weather will be cool and wet with periods of rain and temperatures around 60 degrees. Sunday still promises to be a very nice day for the Amp Energy 500 with ample sunshine and a high around 67. The threat of any severe weather at the Superspeedway has greatly diminished.
NEXT WEEK: For now most of next week looks rain-free with seasonal temperatures for early November; highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Great fall weather.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
I have a weather program this morning at Woodland Forest Elementary in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 today. Enjoy the day!
