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DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON: What a fine mid-winter day. We have sunshine through high clouds, and temperatures in the 60s at mid-afternoon. However, clouds will thicken tonight ahead of a disturbance over Southeast Texas.
WEEKEND SHOWERS: We will maintain the chance of showers both tomorrow and Sunday, but the rain won’t be continuous or especially heavy. And, the weather will stay mild with afternoon highs well up in the 60s. Monday looks the same, with a few passing showers and a very mild afternoon.
STRONG STORMS TUESDAY? Guidance is coming into pretty decent agreement that we will have potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Tuesday or Tuesday night thanks to a strong upper wave coming out of Texas. While the GFS shows very little surface based CAPE, there is a decent chance the model is underestimating the about of instability available. And, with such dynamic forcing, we will have to monitor severe weather potential as the system gets closer.
The rain tapers off Tuesday as the system pulls away from Alabama.
COLD AIR RETURNS: No doubt we will have a major change back to cold weather at the end of next week and the following weekend. The exact details remain up for debate, but the latest GFS and ECMWF runs bring cold and dry air in here as early as Thursday, but the coldest days should be Friday and Saturday. A good chance we won’t get out of the 30s on one or both of those days, with a morning with lows in the 15-25 degree range. Much like the last cold snap.
LONG RANGE: Lots of buzz about the AO going negative, but the NAO remains in question, so just exactly where all that cold Arctic air will go in the “lower 48” remains a little uncertain. But, the latter half of January sure looks much colder than the first part of the month. Take some time and see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
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Brian Peters, the internationally beloved meteorologist, will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday; my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!
