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The broad low in the Gulf of Mexico, well to the south of Mobile Bay, still shows no sign of serious organization, and considering the lack of strengthening over the last 12 hours, most likely this won’t become a formidable system. Models still take it toward the Sabine Pass, between Galveston and Morgan City. Even with no development, it will still bring increasing moisture levels into Alabama from the east, and we will mention the chance of a few isolated showers today over East Alabama, mainly from around Roanoke to Dothan. Most Alabama communities will stay dry with a partly sunny sky and a high up in the 80s. Higher humidity levels will make the afternoon warmth a little more uncomfortable.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: We will continue to mention a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days with highs in the 80s. Both the NAM and the GFS are becoming more aggressive on their rain coverage on Friday, and we might need to hit showers a little harder if the 12Z runs come in with the same look.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS is looking pretty dry for the weekend, but there will be enough moisture around for a few isolated showers Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 80s. At this time we don’t expect rain to be a big problem for race weekend at the Talladega Superspeedway, or homecoming events at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Just keep in mind a small shower is not out of the question. Humidity levels will remain rather high, and early morning lows over the weekend will be close to 70 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Models bring another tropical system across the southern Gulf of Mexico next week, and this one seems to have a better chance to become a tropical storm or hurricane. The GFS and the Canadian bring this one across the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, and westward toward the coast of Mexico by the end of next week. We will watch a mid-latitude system across the Central U.S…. it will be interesting to see if that can weaken the ridge north of the system enough to pull it northward. For now the models are saying no, and that it won’t be a threat to the central Gulf coast. Other than the tropical system, there is nothing in model data to suggest any widespread rain event here next week, with temperatures remaining a little above normal for October.
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STORM ALERT XTREME: We expect to see you at the BJCC on Saturday November 10 for our annual severe storm spotting event… see the agenda and details here.
I will be stopping by Mount Laurel and Greystone Elementary Schools today… then it is into the office where I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video, which should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
