More Notes on Flailing Fay

Fay is looking a bit ragged this morning as the center of the system passes the vicinity of Panama City. Surface data and radar imagery suggest that Fay is located in a position with the center straddling the coastline. So part of the center – I really don’t want to call it the eye – is over water and part not.

Radar shows a massive area of rain generally on the east side of the storm. Flash flood watches are in effect for a large area of the Southeast US extending from near Vicksburg, MS, on the Mississippi River eastward across southern Alabama, southern Misssissippi, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and much of North Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 15 inches have already occurred with some sections of Florida posting amounts over two feet. With the slow motion and gradual decay of Fay, heavy rain continues to be a very big issue with this system. In addition to that, radar showed some fairly intense storms on the east side of the system and Tallahassee had issued at least one tornado warning this morning.

One wave of rain passed through Central Alabama this morning. Just about every reporting location I could find registered around a tenth of an inch. It was a nice soaking rain. However, I don’t think the nice soaking rain is what we can expect over the next three days.

The HPC guys have toned down their forecasts (see graphic), but for Central Alabama the

projections are actually up a bit. I think the new projections reflect a slightly higher confidence in the eventual track of Fay and her remnants. And that track should put much of Central Alabama into the area for some heavy rainfall over the next three to four days.

So stay dry. Be very careful while driving since flooded roadways will be a hazard. And enjoy something Central Alabama has not seen in well over a year – three rainy days!!

-Brian-