From our friend Rob Lightbown at Crown Weather Services…
I wanted to send this special update to all of my subscribers concerning developments over the past 6 to 12 hours in the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Satellite imagery, radar loops and surface analysis showed a large area of thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. This thunderstorm activity is in association with the interaction between a tropical wave and a trough of low pressure. This entire weather system is getting its act together and surface pressures have been falling in the area for the past 3 to 6 hours or so. Radar imagery also indicated a mid level circulation associated with this system, which is designated Invest 91L. Invest 91L is tracking generally northwestward at a forward speed of 13 to 14 mph and this system may be on the coast of Mississippi and Alabama by tomorrow evening at about this time.
Personally, I think Invest 91-L will acquire tropical depression status in the next 12 hours or so and may reach tropical storm status before moving inland tomorrow evening. The main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall and flooding from the rain. With that said, this system will need to be watched very closely and it should not be discounted. Tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of August can develop and intensify very rapidly, especially over water temperatures that are near 90 degrees!!
