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After a week of somewhat unsettled weather, it looks like we are settling into a pattern a bit more typical of summer. There is one small fly in this description, though. And that is another upper weakness currently depicted over the Southwest Atlantic that is projected to move onto the Georgia coast around Monday and perhaps into Alabama by Wednesday. This could produce better shower chances for us and perhaps slightly more shower coverage. However, much of the showers for the next week or so will be driven by afternoon heating in the absence of any major weather features besides the weak upper disturbance I just mentioned. While the little disturbance moves westward, the main troughiness that has produced the unsettled weather and given us some much needed rain will also move westward (retrograde) under the main upper ridge over the western US.
A cold front is also projected to make its way into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend on both of the major models. This, too, could aide in increasing rain chances. While we don’t typically see fronts reaching the Southeast in the middle of summer, the general trough pattern over the eastern US does support this idea.
For now, outside of the daily chances for showers running something around 30 percent, we should also see the heat rise somewhat with daily highs in the lower 90s, fairly typical for the middle of July. Morning lows mainly in the lower 70s.
Tropic remain quiet. And there is only a small area of slight risk for severe weather on the SPC Day 1 map for the Northwest US as well as marginal severe weather chances in the Great Lakes area.
Looks like the summer forecast with daily chances for rain has settled in for us. This is not altogether bad since it does help to keep the extreme heat at bay.
The long range outlook remains positive as we go out into week two with a continuation of the general trough over the easter US and the ridge to our west.
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-Brian-
